It was a close election. It was also a different election. And, it is an election that is decisive on the road ahead for Tamil Nadu. The multi-way mobilisation in an election defined by the arrival of an enormously popular film star into the fray certainly meant that more voters would turn out.
The first point that needs to be made from the "historic" 85.15 per cent voter turnout that the state has recorded is that, in comparison with the past, this is not a historic jump in terms of real numbers.
In 2026, 24 lakh more voters hit the polling booth compared to 2021. In 2016, over 65 lakh more voters voted when compared to 2011, and around 25 lakh more voters in 2021 when compared to 2016.
So, the percentage is historic, but is explained by the shrinking electoral roll after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process, and the actual quantum of jump is in line with past trends and normal.
Having stated that, it is also clear that the TVK was a force on the ground, and Vijay's appeal did enthuse voters to hit the polling booth. The big takeaway from every conversation with strategists from all sides is that poll day decisively debunked the DMK and AIADMK's repeated claims that the battle was only between the two of them. The TVK was a force on the ground and in polling booths!
In fact, several DMK and AIADMK campaign managers admitted that the TVK had strong booth workers who refused to budge and were both aware and stayed firm in monitoring the process. This shows that the TVK did have an organisation. Not one as strong as the two Dravidian majors, but it wasn't just a fan club.
In fact, the general prediction post-poll by strategists of the two major Dravidian parties seems to suggest the TVK is past a 20 per cent vote share; no one is predicting the number of seats!
In fact, three booth workers-one from the DMK and two from the AIADMK-shared that last-minute surges in voting, which are usually attributed to manipulation by the stronger booth agents, were thwarted this time by the presence of TVK booth agents!
It was also clear that anti-incumbency, fatigue with the DMK-AIADMK political script, and, most importantly, a yearning for novelty and change were certain and real factors on the ground. Whether the results, in terms of seats, reflect these or not, the vote shares will.
The third takeaway from poll day is that every political force, especially the AIADMK and the DMK, was acutely aware of the TVK's surge on the ground and put every ounce of organisational might they had into mobilising voters. Every other smaller player did that, too.
The concoction of the above three, along with an SIR process that cleaned up and reduced the overall electoral roll by nearly 10 per cent, from 6.28 crore to 5.73 crore, explains the "historic" 85 per cent voter turnout.
While predicting a result from the voter turnout is a foolish adventure, there may be decisive trends that the turnout shows when one sees the regions.
The fascinating tale in this election is a western and northern voter mobilisation versus a decisively low turnout in most southern districts and an average or below average turnout in the central delta districts.
The top five districts in terms of voter turnout are Karur, Salem, Namakkal, Erode, and Dharmapuri. All of them recorded above 90 per cent. Karur, which recorded the highest at over 92 per cent turnout, is technically classified under central Tamil Nadu's delta region, but it has a large western influence. The other four are the core western region or the Kongu belt.
In contrast, southern districts like Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Sivaganga, and Kanyakumari are all well below 80%. Madurai itself just crossed the 80 per cent mark.
Most northern districts, except Chennai city, show over 85 per cent turnout. And, the core delta, except Nagapattinam and Tiruchirappalli, is lower than the state average.
In many ways, this election is emerging to be one that's going to be won or lost between the west and the north, not just for one side, but for all three. The West is the AIADMK heartland, the only region where the party swept in 2021, and where the DMK wants to make inroads in 2026. In fact, in terms of constituencies, Edappadi, Veerapandi, and Sankari, all in Salem, have recorded massive turnouts of over 90 per cent. There is a story unfolding in western Tamil Nadu in these elections, and it will decide the future of Edappadi Palaniswamy and the AIADMK.
For the Leader of the Opposition, it is imperative to hold on to the party's dominance in the west. If he loses out here, then both the two leaves and the EPS will be in trouble. The TVK impact, Vijay invoking the MGR legacy, and the Karur stampede aftermath-all of it has a huge impact here. So does the DMK's Senthil Balaji factor in trying to rewrite the western dynamic. The voter turnout in the West has made all sides nervous. This is where it will be clear how much the TVK is hurting the AIADMK.
In contrast, the northern districts, including Chennai city, are the DMK heartland, where the party swept in 2021. Allies like the PMK on the AIADMK's side and the VCK on the DMK's side are fighting battles for survival.
Districts like Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Ranipet, and Villupuram all have around 88-90 per cent turnout, and this is the heartland of north Tamil Nadu caste politics.
It is in the north, and Chennai city, that the DMK alliance can win or lose this battle, and the impact of Vijay's arrival on the DMK will be felt. This explains the mobilisation and turnout here. There is a certain nervousness in the DMK here.
Lower turnout districts in the south and central regions are seen, at the risk of going wrong, as an advantage for the traditional forces, as their voters are more likely to have been mobilised to the polling stations.
In fact, huge traffic snarls in Chennai of buses bound for the south were reported, and the TVK even accused that several migrants on their way to the south to cast their vote could not reach because of delays. It, in fact, demanded an extension of closing time to allow people to reach.
Finally, women's voter turnout was around 85.76 percent and men's voter turnout was just under 83.57 per cent. In terms of real numbers, 2.3 crore men and 2.5 crore women voted, around 2 lakh more women. This is different from 2021, when the actual number of men who voted was slightly above the number of women.
While Vijay's appeal amongst women has been widely discussed, the DMK also aimed several of its schemes and campaigns to negate the party's traditionally weak appeal amongst women voters.
Women voters are decisive in Tamil Nadu and were traditionally the AIADMK's forte. The fact that they've turned up in larger numbers to the polling booths is clear, but it's not clear what this means for the result.
The most important metric. To look for will be the under 40 versus over 40 votes polled and in that could be some decisive trend to unravel. However, the ECI is yet to publish that data. But pollsters suggest that there was a boost in younger and family voters, which may be a TVK edge.
In conclusion, this election is not over till it's over. It's going to be a nightmare for pollsters and psephologists to predict, and all political parties will have sleepless nights till the results!
from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/ILyGlX1
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